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President Gloria Arroyo: The Embattled Leader of The Philippines

• Why is President Arroyo Under Attack?

• Can She Survive?

By Obi. O. Akwani
MGV Editor

Posted February 26, 2008

Philippine President, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, is an embattled leader. Just months after she took office in 2001, supporters of former President Estrada stormed the gates of the presidential palace demanding her resignation. In 2003 there was another attempted coup against her when more than 300 soldiers seized a Manila hotel and demanded she step down. Mrs. Arroyo survived both attempts.

President Arroyo won re-election in 2004 in a contentious vote, but in 2005 a tape recording -- purportedly of a phone conversation between her and the election commissioner during the 2004 election -- surfaced to threaten the legitimacy of her re-election. On that basis her opponents alleged that Mrs. Arroyo committed election fraud by attempting to rig the May 2004 poll. The president did not deny making the phone call, but denied that she was trying to influence the vote. The ensuing scandal brought on calls for her resignation and led to an attempt to impeach her.

There were also allegations that her husband, Jose Miguel Arroyo, and son and son-in-law were involved in influence peddling and bribe taking. Mr. Arroyo is said ton be permanently resident in the United States of America since June 2005 -- a family decision which was apparently taken as a damage control measure to contain fallout from the allegations and forestall new ones.

But Mr.Arroyo's exit from the country did not prevent his name surfacing once more in President Gloria Arroyo's latest troubles. The new scandal stems from a 2007 US$330 million contract between the government and ZTE Corporation of China to supply broadband connectivity. The president quickly cancelled the contract.

A key witness in a Senate investigation of the affair, Rodolfo Lozada Jr., implicated the president's husband, Mike Arroyo in the backroom deals on the contract. Lozada claims that former elections chief, Benjamin Abalos, who acted as a broker in the broadband deal, had asked for a US$130 million bribe and threatened to kill Lozada when the latter kicked against the kickback. Both Mike Arroyo and Benjamin Abalos have denied Lozada's allegations.

The question is: why is the president being confronted with these troubles at this time?

The politics of the Philippines have never been without tumult and scandal. Political in-fighting, accusations of corruption and other scandals have dogged every president of the Philippines since the 1940s. But Filipino distrust of their leadership began during the presidency of Ferdinand Marcos.

Marcos rode to power -- after defeating the incumbent, Diosdado Macapagal (President Macapagal-Arroyo's father) in a democratic election in 1965 -- on promises of ending corruption, but he became the most corrupt leader the Philippines have ever known. Marcos' version of capitalism came to be known as "crony capitalism." Marcos was the first Philippine leader to be re-elected to a second term in office, but when it became apparent constitutional amendments chaired by his predecessor, Macapagal, would not allow him to serve another term, Marcos declared martial law in 1972 and ruled the Philippines as dictator for the next 14 years.

Since the ouster of Marcos, Filipinos have become wary of their leaders and challenging them with "People Power" -- mass protests; not letting them get a lock on the nation, like Marcos did, has become the norm.

The trouble now is that political opponents of the president -- members of the privileged establishment who are out of power and eager to get back in -- use every opportunity to challenge the president and are always trying to cash-in on this "People Power" phenomenon to do so.

President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has been accused of being out of touch with the common people. People who have come close to her say she has a strong temper and does not suffer fools easily. A close ally of the president was recently caught on tape describing her as a "lucky bitch" who would survive this most recent attack.

These are the factors that combine to fire Macapagal-Arroyo's opponents. But are they enough to topple her government? Her opponents certainly hope so. The Filipinos have reached a certain level of political maturity that they are unlikely to succumb to the antics of those who want to exploit their "People Power." The people are unlikely to go along with any attempt to oust the president without enough proven ground for such action.

People's power ousted Marcos after he, his family and cronies bled the nation for more than 20 years. When Marcos' army, led by his cousin, moved to attack his opponents, millions of Filipinos demonstrated their "People Power" by pouring into the street and blocking the path of the military force; even the soldiers had little stomach for shooting their fellow citizens and downed their weapons. Joseph Estrada, Macapagal-Arroyo's immediate predecessor was similarly ousted when tens of thousands of people poured into the streets demanding he step down. Estrada had been convicted of corruption and impeached by the House of Representatives, but at the Senate, his cronies attempted to save him by force the prosecution to withdraw from the case, thus necessitating the use of "People Power" to push him out.

In President Macapagal-Arroyo's case, opponents' attempts to muster "People Power" against her have fizzled. She has survived three attempts by the opposition to impeach her and four attempted coups. She has considerable support within the military, in the church and among the middleclass. Her opponents have continued to mount pressure by organizing anti-Arroyo rallies, but none of the protests in recent weeks has seen more than 3,000 demonstrators. Millions and tens of thousands were needed to convince Marcos and Estrada, respectively, to step down.

By all indications President Arroyo will survive these attacks to serve out her term. Her support base - the Catholic church, the middle classes and business elite - remains largely behind her. The church, which had a key role in the ouster of presidents Ferdinand Marcos in 1986 and Joseph Estrada in 2001, has issued a statement saying: "We have to confess that corruption is, in truth, our greatest shame as a people.... This truth challenges us now to communal action." There is yet no compelling reason (or "truth") for the president's support base to abandon her.

Though Mrs. Macapagal-Arroyo's reforms brought mixed results during her first term, her second term has been better. In 2007 she helped bring about the highest economic growth in 31 years, the lowest inflation in 20 years and the lowest budget deficits in 10 years.

Filipinos know the president's opponents do not have all the truth; and while they realize that some of the allegations against the government may have some truth, people also know that they are not enough to convict Arroyo or her government. And the opposition does not have a better alternative to offer.