|
|
 |
Strategy Shift: Why Kerry May Choose a Latino for VP
News Analysis
By Pilar Marrero, Pacific News Service
The growth of Latinos into the nation's largest minority could put
New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson on Sen. John Kerry's short list of
potential vice presidential candidates. Richardson could help Kerry win
several key battleground states in the Southwest -- but the move could
alienate African Americans, who favor Sen. John Edwards, a Southerner.
March 23, 2004 - He's the popular Democratic governor of a
southwestern state, with the unlikely advantage of being an experienced
international diplomat. He was born in California, but spent his
childhood in Mexico City. He speaks real Spanish -- not the spanglish
kind -- and has been nominated three times for the Nobel Peace Prize.
He's a political moderate with charisma and charm.
Those are some of the reasons why New Mexico governor, former U.S.
ambassador to the United Nations, former congressman and former
Secretary of Energy Bill Richardson Lopez is on everyone's short list as
a potential vice presidential nominee to accompany Sen. John Kerry on
his bid for the White House.
Though close to 60 people have been mentioned as possible running mates,
Richardson is no doubt on Kerry's short list, too.
 It's
not the first time Richardson has been this close to the vice
presidency. In 2000, he made no secret of his ambition to share the
ticket with Al Gore, but was quickly dropped from contention after
nuclear secrets were stolen from the Los Alamos National Laboratory and
later found behind a copy machine. Richardson wasn't exactly to blame
for the security lapses, which over decades had become legendary within
the Department of Energy, but because he was at the helm he was deemed
responsible.
Republicans in Congress, obviously nervous at the prospect of
Richardson on the ticket, made a huge deal of the incident. This time,
however, the issue has likely lost its ability to neutralize the
governor.
Democrats have already given Richardson a prominent position in this
election cycle, as chairman of the Democratic National Convention that
will nominate Kerry in Boston at the end of July. He heads Moving
America Forward, a political committee aimed at registering Latinos in
Arizona, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada.
Those states are precisely why Richardson is such an attractive choice
for the VP spot: as the South goes increasingly Republican, Democratic
strategy could shift to courting the Latino vote in the battleground
states of the Southwest and even in Florida, where the non-Cuban,
Latino, Democratic vote is growing fast.
There are other interesting potential VP's on Kerry's short list, such
as Sen. John Edwards, the smart, attractive, populist campaigner who
gave Kerry a run for his money in the presidential primary. But if the
question is, "Can you carry your state and help carry other states
outside of the nominee's reach?" then many experts say Richardson is the
better choice. No one knows for sure if Edwards or anyone else can help
Kerry win anywhere in the South.
Choosing Richardson over a Southerner would challenge the traditional
wisdom that no Democrat can win the White House without being from the
South or having significant support there. It would signal a strategy
shift, a gamble on building more support in the Southwest, where Latinos
are a growing presence.
In 2000, Gore carried New Mexico by only 366 votes and lost Arizona and
Nevada to Bush. California and Texas are foregone conclusions -- the
first for the Democrat and the second for the president -- but in a
close race the smaller states could be the key to victory.
Richardson could help defeat the effort by Bush and his political point
man Karl Rove to garner 40 percent or more of the Latino vote. The idea
of voting for a half-Mexican who could be a heartbeat away from the
presidency would be tempting for most Latinos across the nation.
Richardson has some potential downfalls: his enthusiastic support for
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), for one. While in
Congress, Richardson was a key vote-getter for NAFTA on behalf of the
Clinton administration, back when Democrats were running as centrists
and not populists. That puts him at odds with many Democrats from the
heartland, who feel the pinch of jobs fleeing overseas and who espouse a
more protectionist attitude.
Choosing Richardson for vice president could also alienate African
Americans, who have expressed support for Edwards. Also, the black
community has voted against Latino candidates in some local and state
races, when they feel their political power is being undermined by the
new largest minority. Few African Americans will vote for Bush, but they
may abstain if they feel unrepresented in the Democratic ticket.
On the other hand, African Americans may cast their ballots for anyone
if they dislike the incumbent enough. In California's gubernatorial
recall election, blacks supported Latino candidate Cruz Bustamante at a
higher rate than Latinos.
Richardson predicted in 2000 that, "if not this time, for sure next
time" there will be a Latino on the Democratic ticket. He insisted then
that America was ready for such a revolutionary proposition.
Perhaps 2004 will do the trick. Even if Richardson does not become
Kerry's right-hand man, most people who know the governor know he would
love another position in a potential Kerry administration: Secretary of
State.
PNS contributor Pilar Marrero (pilar.Marrero@laopinion.com)
is a political columnist and metropolitan news editor for La Opinion
Newspaper in Los Angeles.
|
