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By The Associated Press

"Recession over" gov't may say...but not job losses

By TOM RAUM

Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) -- It is about to become official: The U.S. recession is over -- but not the pain.

The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.

How can both be possible?

The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.

But try telling that to the more than 15 million still unemployed, the small businesses and individuals who can't get loans and the people whose homes are worth less than their mortgages.

Assertions by government and private economists that the recession is over -- issued amid graphic examples of continuing wide distress -- are raising fresh questions about economic scorekeeping.

The national recession may be technically over, but the state of the economy remains in the eyes of the beholder.

Or, as Ronald Reagan liked to say, a recession is when your neighbor loses his or her job. Depression is when you lose yours.

A survey of economic forecasters prepared by Blue Chip Economic Indicators, a research organization, predicted GDP growth to remain positive in each quarter through the end of 2010. In a survey by the National Association of Business Economics, 34 of 43 economists polled said the recession is over.

"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

"A recession that showed no signs of ending last January appears to be firmly entering the recovery phase," said Christina Romer, the chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.

But nobody is sugar coating the statistics, especially in the administration, which agrees with private surveys suggesting that unemployment will hover near 10 percent through most of next year.

"Even when you've turned the corner, you have so much work to do," Romer told Congress' Joint Economics Committee.

And while she credited much of the turnabout to government stimulus measures and moves by the Fed, she said "by mid-2010, fiscal stimulus will be contributing little to further growth."

Even ahead of the report expected to show an increase in economic growth, The Conference Board, a private Chicago-based research group, reported Tuesday that consumers' confidence about the U.S. economy fell unexpectedly in October as job prospects remained bleak.

That fueled speculation that an already gloomy holiday shopping forecast could worsen. Consumer spending accounts for more than two-thirds of the entire economy.

The economy has lost 7.2 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, 3.4 million of them since President Barack Obama took office in January.

James K. Galbraith, an economist at the University of Texas at Austin, suggests too much attention is given to when recessions technically begin and not enough to other measures of the economy.

"It's just a word. A recession technically lasts during negative quarters. But that doesn't mean you're back to prosperity once you have positive growth. You're back to prosperity when the unemployment rate is back around 4 percent," Galbraith said. And that, he said, could take years.

A recession is popularly defined as two or more consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, or declining output.

But a more refined determination is made by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private group of leading economists charged with dating the start and end of economic downturns. It not only looks at GDP but at employment levels, real personal income, industrial production and wholesale and retail sales.

It put the start date at December 2007 and has not yet called an end.

There have been 11 recessions since World War II. In the two most recent ones, job growth lagged long after the recessions were deemed over. In the most recent two -- July 1990-March 1991 and March-November 2001 -- the unemployment rate did not fall to prerecession levels for several years.

After the eight-month 2001 recession, the unemployment rate went from a prerecession 4 percent in 2000 to 4.8 percent in 2001. Then it kept climbing even higher -- to 5.8 percent in 2002 to 6 percent in 2003. It didn't return to under 5 percent until 2006, when it fell to 4.6 percent.

While there are clear signs of recovery, it is uneven.

Stocks have surged about 50 percent since their March lows. And a year after Washington rescued the financial industry, some large banks and Wall Street firms have roared back to profitability.

But smaller banks and other businesses are struggling, and many have failed or are failing.

That disconnect sparked anger among the public and led to sweeping government action last week to limit executive compensation at financial firms that accepted federal bailout money.

"While credit may be more available for large businesses, too many small business owners are still struggling to get the credit they need," Obama said in his weekly radio and Internet address. "These are the very taxpayers who stood by America's banks in a crisis -- and now it's time for our banks to stand by creditworthy small businesses, and make the loans they need to open their doors, grow their operations and create new jobs."

There have been modest improvements in manufacturing and other parts of the nonfinancial business sector, yet lingering signs of weakness in commercial real estate and retail spending.

Economists suggest some of the expected increase in economic growth is a bounce off the bottom. They attribute it to government stimulus spending, including the now-expired Cash for Clunkers program; accommodative Fed monetary policies and widespread cost-cutting by companies.

Many companies let inventories run down so much that when they ran out, orders picked up. Home resales ticked up as buyers scrambled to complete their purchases before a tax credit for first-time owners expires. And U.S. exporters have benefited from a relentless decline of the dollar that has made U.S. goods cheaper and more competitive overseas.

But none of this adds up to a sustainable upswing.

"Absent robust job growth, it is not a true economic recovery," said White House economic adviser Jared Bernstein.

Your Career: Surprise! You're a manager. Now what??

By CHIP CUTTER

AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) - As companies lay off workers and change the job descriptions of others, some employees are getting a big surprise: They're managing people for the first time.

For most people, becoming a manager isn't an easy task. First-timers face challenges that range from rallying co-workers, some of whom might not be happy with their new bosses, to coping with piles of additional paperwork.

Where to begin? Personnel consultants say new managers should start by meeting with their own bosses to clarify the expectations of the position. Some managers, for example, are expected to oversee other employees while also retaining their previous  responsibilities. Others may simply be tasked with boosting the performance of the entire group.

Asking questions like "What do you want me to do?" and "Why did you hire me?" can go a long way in helping managers crystalize their responsibilities within an organization, said Thomas O. Davenport, a principal with human resources consultancy Towers  Perrin.

A few other tips for stepping into a first-time management role with relative ease:

SHIFT YOUR FOCUS

As an employee, it's natural and important to focus on your individual performance. But as a manager, you're now responsible for helping other people do well, and that means you need to change your perspective.

Get comfortable stepping into an authoritative role, and realize that character traits that may have gotten you ahead in business before, such as a cutthroat competitiveness, could now work against you.

Many managers, out of sheer insecurity, feel the need to constantly one-up their employees, said Curt Coffman, a management consultant and co-author of "First, Break All the Rules: What the World's Greatest Managers Do Differently." That's a big  mistake, though, since it can stifle employees' creativity. It can also damage managers' credibility by suggesting they feel threatened by staff members.

Instead of telling workers "don't be better than me," managers should encourage them to aspire to excellence, he said.

GET TO KNOW YOUR PEOPLE

To get their employees to succeed, new managers need to relate to staffers on an individual level. To start doing that, Coffman said it can be helpful to set up breakfast meetings, lunches or even informal BBQs with employees to understand what  motivates them.

"Every manager should know ... what makes each person tick," he said. "What do they get the greatest satisfaction out of? What are those things that they've done that they felt incredibly fulfilled in?"

Of course, in a time of transition, employees may be weary of opening up to a boss or taking orders from someone new, especially if that person was formerly a colleague.

So, to rally the team, managers should look for "quick wins," or small victories that can build positive momentum early on, said Susan Ashford, a professor of management at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business.

Simple changes such as getting an unpopular rule reversed or improving a much-despised expense reporting system can do wonders toward building support for a new manager, Ashford said.

Managers can then use the newfound goodwill to push through new strategies or other changes.

CONSTANTLY EVALUATE YOUR PROGRESS - AND PRIORITIES

First-timers can lose focus of their priorities as they struggle to cope with the onslaught of additional work. That tends to create situations where managers overstretch themselves or lose touch with their actual goals.

To stay on track, beginners need to take time every two weeks to reassess their progress, said Linda Hill, a Harvard Business School professor and the author of "Becoming a Manager: How New Managers Master the Challenges of Leadership."

Her advice: "Literally step back and look at how you've spent your time, given what's really important to the organization."

University of Michigan's Ashford said some of the best advice she ever received came from a manager who told her he simply tries to accomplish three tasks a day.

It may sound small, she said, but when new mangers are facing "a million and one things" to do, deciding on the three most important goals can be highly productive.

WORK TO OVERCOME SELF DOUBTS

New managers often struggle to overcome another challenge: insecurity.

Peter Eickelberg, the senior investment officer at Phoenix wealth management and investment planning firm Keats, Connelly and Associates LLC, was moved into a management role last year after his boss suddenly quit.

He now oversees four people, and said it was a tough transition.

"When you're a first-time supervisor, your own self doubt gets in the way," he said. "And you think, 'Why would these people look at me as a supervisor, when until yesterday, I was on the same level as they are?"

His advice: Recognize that power doesn't come immediately, and that it takes time and plenty of late hours to get fully organized and immersed in the role.

To build credibility, new managers should spend time simply observing and taking suggestions from their employees, Harvard's Hill said.

And be prepared for the fact that employees will be judging you from day one.

"Don't be paranoid about it," Hill said, "but, yes, people are watching your every move."

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press.

In diverse times, libraries seek to broaden appeal

By DEEPTI HAJELA

Associated Press Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- Sheryl Toque settled into her seat in the East Elmhurst branch of the Queens Library, her children playing nearby.

She wasn't there to borrow a book. But she did want information -- the 33-year-old Philippines native wants to become an American citizen. So she went to the library for a seminar with a civics teacher and a lawyer to go through the immigration process. It wasn't the first time she's used the Queens Library for help; she has also taken English classes at another branch.

"It's usually free so you don't have to spend anything extra," she said. "I like it because I could also bring my kids with me."

Libraries have always been in the business of providing information. But as diversity continues to grow in the United States, libraries like the system in Queens are trying to remain vital and relevant to their communities by offering information in a range of new ways.

They're doing that not only by adding material in multiple languages to their collections, but also through programming that includes citizenship courses, tax help and cancer screenings.

"It's inevitable that all public libraries are affected and impacted by the diversity of this country," said Sari Feldman, president of the Public Library Association, a division of the American Library Association.

"We've become more relevant and more critical to people's lives than ever before."

So in Dallas, the schedule includes a bilingual introductory computer class among its events. In Seattle, library offerings include multilingual help with filling out forms at tax time. And when the library closed for a week last month because of budget problems, the notice was translated into 12 languages.

The demographics of Seattle have changed, so "as a library we have to be responsive to those changes and meet the needs of our diverse and changing customer base," said Andra Addison, spokeswoman for the Seattle Public Library.

"Libraries have recognized the critical role that they play in information and also in education," Feldman said.

Nowhere is that more true than in Queens, which was named the 2009 Library of the Year by the Library Journal. Admirers say it has become a prime example of how libraries can remain relevant and vital to the changing communities they serve. Its collection contains works in several dozen languages, and programming includes such topics as English literacy and health screenings.

That's what's needed in a borough that, with more than 2 million residents, is larger than most American cities. Census estimates show that almost half of those residents are foreign-born. More than half speak a language other than English at home, and of those, a majority say they don't speak English very well.

The demographics of what is arguably the country's most diverse county would present a challenge for any organization looking to connect to its community. But for the library, taking on that challenge has proved to be an opportunity to thrive.

"They do it in Queens in ways that we hadn't even seen before," said John N. Berry III, editor-at-large at Library Journal.

Michael Fix, the senior vice president and co-director of the National Center on Immigrant Integration Policy, said the system was a model. He noted that the library has a full-time employee whose job is to analyze the demographics of the borough.

"In each case, what they do is widely recognized as representing the best practices in the field," he said.

The Queens library system is one of three in New York City; Brooklyn has its own system, and the New York Public Library covers the boroughs of Manhattan, the Bronx and Staten Island.

Among its offerings, the Queens system -- 61 branches along with a main headquarters -- holds story hours and other programs in multiple languages; provides classes for immigrants and natives wanting to learn or improve their English; offers sessions where those needing to file visa and immigration paperwork online can get help; holds seminars on topics including how to start a business and foreclosure prevention; and works with other groups to offer information on where to get health screenings and medical treatment.

Jacqueline Flood has been using the library since she was 6 years old, but not like this. The 56-year-old Flood, unemployed for 18 months, has an appointment for a mammogram at a mobile screening center that visits library branches.

"A lot of people use the library," she said. "It's good to know they're able to supply the community with things other than books."

The Queens library continues to try offering such services even as the financial downturn has cut into funding, as it has for libraries around the country.

The library had to close an art gallery, took a bookmobile off the road and has frozen hiring. As some branches have reduced hours, some cultural programs have been trimmed. CEO Thomas Galante said he hopes the economic situation will improve before the system has to cut staff positions or make any other changes to library offerings.

Even with a broader range of programming, the library still fills its traditional role -- it has more than 22 million items in circulation per year, a figure that puts it among the top libraries anywhere. Those materials are available in a number of languages.

"For a library to be relevant over the next decades," he said, "you need to be a community place that offers lots of different services all around information and access to technology. 

Wait: Job loss "deals" come with fine print

By CANDICE CHOI

AP Personal Finance Writer

NEW YORK (AP) - You can finally indulge in that vacation to Paris. And if you lose your job and suddenly need the money back, the airline will give you a refund.

It's a foolproof plan. Except that such deals usually come with strings attached.

As the unemployment rate marches toward 10 percent, retailers big and small have emerged with programs that let you walk away from purchases at no cost if you lose your job. The idea is to ease doubts about spending for those who feel uncertain about  their finances.

The promotions, known as "job loss protection plans," no doubt provide a valuable safety net for those who would buy anyway. But if you're on the fence because money is tight, it's worth taking a closer look at the fine print.

Each promotion differs, but here's a rundown of six plans and what to watch for. All require you to submit an application and in most cases proof that you were laid off.

CITIGROUP MORTGAGES

Expires: No date set.

HOW IT WORKS: Citigroup will lower mortgage payments for unemployed homeowners to an average of $500 a month for three months or longer, depending on your circumstances. The loan is considered in good standing, and is not reported as delinquent.

THE FINE PRINT: If your spouse is also listed on the mortgage, you both need to be unemployed and at least one of you needs to have been laid off in the past year. If one of you works, the annual income can't be more than $10,000.

Your mortgage also needs to be 60 days or more past due or in foreclosure, but that term may soon be loosened.

"We're looking at expanding this to include those who are current on payments," said Sanjiv Das, CEO of CitiMortgage. He said the change will likely happen before the end of the year.

Another concern - your new lowered payment must at least cover escrow, which is generally property taxes and insurance. So if your escrow is $500, the payment would be at least that amount.

One reason the program sounds so restrictive is that it's more of a safety net for those who don't qualify for the federal loan modification program, which requires an income.

"This was meant to catch those that fall through the cracks," Das said.

THE LESSON: Unemployment alone may not be automatic qualifier; there could be numerous factors you need to meet to be eligible.

DISCOVER CDS

Expires: Dec. 31

HOW IT WORKS: Those who open or renew 12-month CDs won't be charged penalties if they lose their job within one year and need to make an early withdrawal. The remainder of the balance continues accruing interest. Enrollment is automatic for CDs opened  or renewed after July 1.

Penalty rates on early withdrawals vary, but at Discover be prepared to pay six months of interest on the amount withdrawn from a 12-month CD. So if you invested $20,000 at the current 2 percent rate and withdraw $10,000, the penalty fee would be $100.

THE FINE PRINT: There aren't many catches. But you must be employed full time when you open or renew the CD, and for 30 days thereafter. You also need a minimum balance of $2,500 in the CD.

THE LESSON: Job loss promotions are intended for people who have been working steadily for some time. In this case, it's at least 30 days. But other plans might have longer requirements.

HYUNDAI CARS

Expires: Dec. 31

HOW IT WORKS: You can return your car for up to one year after the purchase. If the value of the loan exceeds the value of the car, you're not responsible for up to a $7,5000 difference.

So if you bought a $20,000 car and made two payments of $500, you would still owe $19,000. If the car is only worth $17,000 when you return it, you don't need to pay that $2,000 difference.

If you want to keep the car, Hyundai covers up to three months of payments, regardless of the cost. Your credit report is not affected.

THE FINE PRINT: You're not eligible if you get a temp job or part-time work. You also need to have already made the first two payments. You must be employed for 90 days before filing your claim.

THE LESSON: Even limited part-time work might disqualify you for the program. This could be a problem for anyone who is looking to make ends meet after being laid off.

JETBLUE FLIGHTS

Expires: Dec. 31

HOW IT WORKS: Get a refund for bookings made after Feb. 1. If you booked flights for your entire family under your name, you could get refunds for up to nine seats in a single reservation.

The program is also available for JetBlue Getaways, which are packages that include plane tickets and hotel reservations.

THE FINE PRINT: Bookings made with gift cards, vouchers and the JetBlue awards program are not eligible. If your refund application isn't approved, JetBlue still cancels the flight and charges a $100 cancellation fee. Requests must be faxed at least 14  days before the flight's departure date, and an original copy of the request must be sent by certified mail to JetBlue.

The person who booked the flight also has to be the person who lost his or her job; so you can't get a refund if you lose your job but your spouse booked the flights.

THE LESSON: The payment method you choose - and the person who makes the purchase - could determine whether you qualify.

VIRGIN MOBILE CELL PHONE BILLS

Expires: Dec. 31

HOW IT WORKS: Payments on monthly cell phone plans will be covered for up to three months. You can apply for the benefit for up to one year after you enroll. New customers are automatically enrolled, and existing customers can sign up.

THE FINE PRINT: The company will cover a maximum of $90 a month, so you'll need to pay the difference if your bill is higher. If you have more than one account, you can only submit a claim for one. You have to have made two monthly payments to be  eligible.

THE LESSON: Ask about any limits on reimbursement. If your purchase is expensive, you might not get the entire amount covered.

WALGREENS' IN-STORE CLINICS

Expires: Dec. 31

HOW IT WORKS: Free health care services at Walgreens' in-store Take Care Clinics for customers who lost their jobs on or after March 31 and have no health insurance benefits. Treatments are limited to common ailments such as colds, seasonal allergies,  pink eye and minor skin conditions.

Dependents such as spouses, same-sex partners and children are also covered if they don't have insurance. There are about 350 Take Care Clinics across 19 states.

THE FINE PRINT: You must have been a paying customer before you lost your job. A standard visit usually starts at around $65.

The program is also only available between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., Monday to Friday.

Medications aren't covered, and neither are preventative visits - like checkups, flu shots or physicals.

"(The program) is in no way intended to be a substitute for COBRA or health insurance," said Gabe Weissman, a spokesman for Take Care Health.

THE LESSON: The offer might not include a full suite of services, so think over whether the deal would cover all your needs.

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If you have any consumer questions or experiences you want to share, e-mail Candice Choi at cchoi(at)ap.org.

Copyright 2009 The Associated Press.

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