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By The Associated Press

Where's the next boom? Maybe in `cleantech'

By JORDAN ROBERTSON

AP Technology Writer

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- The U.S. economy sure could use the Next Big Thing. Something on the scale of railroads, automobiles or the Internet -- the kind of breakthrough that emerges every so often and builds industries, generates jobs and mints fortunes.

Silicon Valley investors are pointing to something called cleantech -- alternative energy, more efficient power distribution and new ways to store electricity, all with minimal impact to the environment -- as a candidate for the next boom.

While no two booms are exactly alike, some hallmarks are already showing up.

Despite last fall's financial meltdown, public and private investments are pouring in, fueling startups and reinvigorating established companies. And the political and social climates are favorable.

Some of the biggest booms first blossomed during recessions. The telephone and phonograph were developed during the depression of the 1870s. The integrated circuit, a milestone in electronics, was invented in the recessionary year of 1958. Personal computers went mainstream, spawning a huge industry, in the slumping early 1980s.

A year into the Great Recession, innovation isn't slowing. This time, it's better batteries, more efficient solar cells, smarter appliances and electric cars, not to mention all the infrastructure needed to support the new ways energy will be generated and the new ways we'll be using it.

Yet for all the benefits that might be spawned by cleantech breakthroughs, no one knows how many jobs might be created -- or how many old jobs might be cannibalized. It also remains to be seen whether Americans will clamor for any of its products.

Still, big bets are being placed. The Obama administration is pledging to invest $150 billion over the next decade on energy technology and says that could create 5 million jobs. This recession has wiped out 7.2 million.

And cleantech is on track to be the dominant force in venture capital investments over the next few years, supplanting biotechnology and software. Venture capitalists have poured $8.7 billion into energy-related startups in the U.S. since 2006.

That pales in comparison with the dot-com boom, when venture cash sometimes topped $10 billion in a single quarter. But the momentum surrounding clean energy is reminiscent of the Internet's early days. Among the similarities: Although big projects are still dominated by large companies, the scale of the challenges requires innovation by smaller firms that hope to be tomorrow's giants.

"Ultimately IBM and AT&T didn't build the Internet. It was built by Silicon Valley startups," says Bob Metcalfe, an Internet pioneer who now invests in energy projects with Polaris Venture Partners. "And energy is going to be solved by entrepreneurial activity."

The action is happening at companies like GreatPoint Energy in Cambridge, Massachusetts, which has developed a technique for turning coal into natural gas more cheaply and efficiently than previous methods.

GreatPoint plans to break ground next year on a power plant in Houston that will cost $800 million and create thousands of construction jobs, says its CEO, Andrew Perlman. Dow Chemical Co. and energy giants AES Corp., Suncor Energy Inc. and Peabody Energy are all GreatPoint investors.

"The opportunities," Perlman says, "are staggering."

A123 Systems, a Watertown, Massachusetts, maker of lithium-ion batteries for electric cars, had one of the most lucrative public stock offerings this year, raising $437.5 million. Its stock price jumped more than 50 percent on the first day of trading in September, with investors willing to overlook that the company has yet to make money.

The Obama administration's promises about cleantech funding have galvanized the industry, reassuring entrepreneurs that they will have paying customers. The administration has said it will focus on putting more hybrid cars on the road, boosting the amount of electricity from renewable sources and investing in ways to cut pollution from coal.

One target is "smart grids." As utilities install digital meters in homes and Americans buy appliances that can communicate with the electric system, individual power consumption can be monitored more closely. People could be cued to dial down appliances such as refrigerators and air conditioners when electricity is in highest demand. Such fine-tuning in millions of homes can reduce the need for new power plants.

At Tendril Networks Inc. of Boulder, Colorado, which makes software that links utilities to smart-grid devices in homes, the staff has tripled over the past five months to 90. CEO Adrian Tuck says Tendril could grow even more if some of the $4.5 billion earmarked for smart grids in this year's federal stimulus goes to Tendril's clients.

"What we're about to see is every bit as big as the telecom revolution that gave birth to the Internet and cell phones," Tuck says. "It's going to create as many jobs and as much wealth for this country, if they get it right. Big, Google-sized companies are going to be born in this era, and we hope to be one of them."

The government's push for these developments parallels the expansion of railroads in the 19th century, when the government granted blocks of land to companies laying track, says Jack Brown, an associate professor in the University of Virginia's Department of Science, Technology and Society.

One difference, Brown points out, is that clean energy is such a vast field that government could make the wrong choice in backing one type of technology over another.

It's not just startups getting in the game. General Electric Co. plans to string transmission lines to deliver solar or wind power. Hewlett-Packard Co. is adapting techniques for printer cartridge chips so digital sensors can send data to smart grids.

But how much of an economic boost does all this add up to? It's hard to tell -- at least at this stage, without products people actually want to buy.

The laser, for instance, was a big innovation, but it wasn't clear at first what it could be used for. That's why there wasn't an economic boom in the 1960s from the advent of lasers, even though they ended up driving everything from medical devices to CD players for four decades.

Sung Won Sohn, an economics professor at California State University, Channel Islands, believes upgrading electric grids and finding new sources of power will provide steady job growth -- but won't be an economic powder keg.

Clean energy projects could simply replace old jobs and functions, like meter-readers. And there's no guarantee new jobs won't shift to countries with cheaper labor.

Some innovations take longer to reveal their economic effects. There are big booms based on specific innovations -- along the lines of railroads, automobiles and the Internet -- and then there are technologies that grow slowly, spawning offshoot industries for entrepreneurs to exploit over decades.

For example, the emergence of the integrated circuit led to the development of computer microprocessors, which enabled the PC revolution and in turn the Internet age. There's every reason to believe energy technology will fall into the same category, Brown says, but he adds: "It depends on how the bets actually play out."

Forecast: 35,800 new Louisiana jobs over 2 years

By ALAN SAYRE

AP Business Writer

NEW ORLEANS (AP) -- After years of a moribund economy, Monroe will add jobs at the fastest pace in Louisiana in 2010 and 2011, while New Orleans will stagger through its post-Hurricane Katrina recovery with the slowest employment growth.

That's the analysis of university economists who issued a two-year jobs forecast Wednesday.

Louisiana will add 17,800 non-farm jobs in 2010, a growth rate of 0.9 percent, followed by the addition of 18,000 in 2011, another 0.9 percent growth rate, according to the Louisiana Economic Forecast.

Among metro areas, Monroe will grow fastest on a percentage basis, while Baton Rouge will add the largest number of jobs. New Orleans won't add enough jobs to reach its 1980 employment levels, the forecast said.

The study suggested the New Orleans area is being shunned by major new business investment because of concerns about levee safety, the large amount of housing out of service since Katrina struck in August 2005 and crime. For now, the local economy is being propped up by $9.3 billion in rebuilding projects.

City officials, meanwhile, are grappling with a projected 2010 budget shortfall of more than $60 million.

"It's going to be real worrisome after 2011 when those levee projects and those bridge projects start being finished," said Loren Scott, professor emeritus of economics at Louisiana State University and an author of the study.

Statewide, there are two major wild cards: a proposed federal tax on petroleum production and carbon legislation that could have huge impact on petrochemical manufacturing. If neither passes, Louisiana job growth could be higher than forecast, the report said.

The threat of the petroleum tax, which has yet to be considered by Congress, is already chilling Lafayette and Houma-Thibodaux, the report said. A cap-and-trade proposal for carbon emissions, which faces an uncertain future after passing the House, is of concern for Baton Rouge and Lake Charles, both heavily dependent on chemical manufacturing and refining.

Scott said four areas will be something of a drag in 2010-2011 -- New Orleans, Lafayette, Houma-Thibodaux and Alexandria -- and four will have impressive job growth -- Monroe, Shreveport-Bossier City, Lake Charles and Baton Rouge.

"You have some areas that have a lot to look forward to," Scott said.

The highlights:

-- After losing jobs for seven years, Monroe will lead in percentage of new jobs: 1,900, or 2.5 percent, and 1,500, or 1.9 percent, in 2011. The outlook assumes fruition of the V-Vehicle Co. assembly plant with 1,400 employees, hiring at the Foster Farms chicken plant in Farmerville and a Congra sweet potato plant.

The area is still recovering from the closure of a State Farm Insurance operations center (900 jobs lost) and the Guide Corp. auto headlight plant (800 jobs).

Patrick Petrus, manager at West Monroe-based T.P. Outdoors, a sporting goods store where discretionary consumer spending is key, said he's pinning his hopes on a turnaround.

"We've just hired a few people lately and we've expanded," he said of his family's business.

-- New Orleans will add 3,000 jobs in 2010 and another 2,500 in 2011, a relatively weak figure bolstered by rebuilding. A sagging tourism-convention sector and probable job losses at the Michoud Assembly Facility as the space shuttle program ends will result in the slowest job growth rate over the next two years.

Lingering impacts from Katrina are not the city's only woes.

Laura Calcagno, a New Orleans-area insurance account manager, blamed a poor education system, the predominance of an unskilled workforce and crime as additional forces keeping companies from locating in New Orleans and pushing some to move out.

"It's like New Orleans is not going to be rebuilt," she said.

In a separate report Tuesday, Scott predicted New Orleans would have the slowest growth along the Louisiana-Mississppi-Alabama Gulf Coast over the next two years.

-- Baton Rouge will add 4,000 jobs in 2010 and 5,500 in 2011. The region will benefit from $5.1 billion in construction projects and industrial expansion, including a new chemical plant in Plaquemine and a reopened paper mill in St. Francisville. However, the area could face state government layoffs as Gov. Bobby Jindal fights budget problems.

-- Shreveport-Bossier City will add 3,000 jobs in 2010, but gain a net 1,200 in 2011, the year its General Motors assembly plant is expected to close, eliminating 950 workers and hitting companies that supply the plant. Boosts will come from natural gas production from the Haynesville Shale formation, the new Global Strike Command to Barksdale Air Force Base and highway construction.

-- Lake Charles will add 1,100 jobs in 2010 and 1,700 in 2011 with the expected opening of a riverboat casino, a Shaw Group nuclear components plant and rehiring at Aeroframe, which services aircraft.

-- Houma will add 900 jobs in 2010 and 800 in 2011. Shipyards and offshore fabrication companies will provide the bulk of the new jobs. A factor to watch is the proposed petroleum tax.

-- Lafayette will add 700 jobs in 2010 and 1,000 jobs in 2011, mostly because of $30 million in construction projects.

-- Alexandria will add 600 jobs in 2010 and 600 in 2011. Employment is expected to rebound at the Union Tank Car Co. plant, which cut its payroll during the recession. Recovery of the housing market would benefit the logging and wood products industries and highway construction. On the downside, the report said, no new major employers are in sight.

Talking, paying, partying can lift worker morale

Oct 07 16:11

By JOYCE M. ROSENBERG

AP Business Writer

NEW YORK (AP) -- As Bart Cleveland talks to employees of his ad agency, he sees the strain.

"We're really keenly aware of what the economy is doing to people's morale," said Cleveland, a partner at McKee Wallwork Cleveland in Albuquerque, NM. "They're stressed in a way that I've never seen people stressed."

Economic reports of the last week point to plenty of reasons for low morale at small companies. A survey by the National Federation of Independent Business of its members found that employment in small companies over the past three months fell on average by almost one worker per business. That's an improvement over the spring, but it still means businesses are struggling and that they're cutting employees rather than hiring new ones.

That inevitably is going to affect morale, but even at companies that are faring better, workers are uneasy. So small business owners need to help keep employees' spirits from sagging.

Cleveland does what many human resources consultants suggest, talking with staffers and letting them know how the business is doing.

"We're communicating much more frequently with our employees about things they may not have been concerned about" in the past, said Cleveland. He walks around the office to talk with employees each day.

Cleveland added these walks to his routine four or five months ago, well into the recession. He said it was "something I intended to do, but I'm a worker bee and I can get very focused on what I'm doing." But he recently recognized employees' need for more face time with the boss.

"When I realized it had to be more of a priority, I made it a priority," he said.

Rick Gibbs, a senior human resources specialist with Administaff, a Houston-based company that provides HR outsourcing, supports the idea of owners being up-front with staffers about the business.

"That's one of the things we think is most important and keeps employees engaged, even in a negative time," he said.

"It may not make them happy and glowing necessarily, but it provides something to think about even in a tough time and it also creates a tie between the company and the employee," Gibbs said.

Gibbs said his company is finding that small business clients are more concerned these days with keeping employee morale up. "It comes up in our conversation all the time," he said.

There is often a direct cause-and-effect relationship between how workers feel and how well they work. Uneasy and uncertain workers may find it harder to concentrate. That in turn is going to affect performance, and it's not too long before the company feels the impact.

A boss being open with employees about the business can help focus their efforts on what the company needs to thrive. That can give them a sense of power that may alleviate some of feelings of being at the mercy of the economy. Allowing them to vent a little frustration is probably a good idea as well.

Gibbs suggests including staffers in a dialogue about making the business stronger, asking them: "What are your ideas? What do you think is most effective with customers?"

He acknowledged, though, that many owners may have never had this kind of openness with staffers.

"It may be a difficult thing to do and it requires the leader to really take a look at how to best help their businesses," he said.

Another approach for keeping employees' morale up is through incentives and rewards, such as performance bonuses.

DeAnne Merey, president of D M Public Relations in New York, developed an incentive pay program and calls it "a huge morale booster."

"We're gaining clients but not at the rate we would have if the economy was robust," she said. The incentive pay, which is awarded on a project-by-project basis, gives employees something to work toward.

Gibbs noted that there are also incentives that don't cost anything, such as allowing a staffer who has done something outstanding to leave early on a Friday. But he recommended that owners not give incentives that appear "programmed" or automatic because "they lose some of their effectiveness."

Cleveland's company also works to keep morale high by celebrating its achievements. When several big projects became successful, employees were treated to a party where brownies and fruit were served.

"I could feel the energy of the place. People were laughing and talking," he said. "It really made a difference."

Watercooler: Stay-at-home moms younger, poorer; Flu shots

Oct 06 14:27

By TALI ARBEL

AP Business Writer

STAY-AT-HOME MOMS: Move over, June Cleaver. Stay-at-home moms today are more likely to be younger, lower income, Hispanic or foreign born than their working counterparts.

New census data collected by the U.S. government on families and households compared married stay-at-home mothers with other married women -- who either worked themselves, had husbands who didn't work or did not cite caring for home and family as the reason they didn't work. There were 24 million of the couples with children under the age of 15 in 2007. Of them, 24 percent included a stay-at-home mother, which the census defined as a woman who said her husband worked while she stayed home in order to care for her family.

The stay-at-home moms were also more likely to have younger children and less education than working mothers.

Just 5.1 percent of working moms were below poverty level in 2006, while 12.3 percent of stay-at-home moms fell into that category. That is at least partly because the stay-at-home moms belonged to one-income families, while working mothers are part of a dual-income household, the report said.

What about stay-at-home dads? The census data showed 165,000 such fathers in 2007, or less than 0.1 percent of married-parent families with young children.

Families with two parents in the labor force were most common in the Midwest and Northeast, with the exception of New York. Such families were least likely to live in the West and Southwest, excluding Nevada and Oregon.

Data was collected in February, March and April 2007.

FLU WATCH: Parents agree: Making sure kids wash hands and eat right is very important for keeping them healthy during swine flu season. Getting vaccinated? Not so much.

According to a recent Consumer Reports survey, 41 percent of parents said they would definitely have their child vaccinated for the seasonal flu, and 22 percent said they definitely would not. For swine flu, only 35 percent said they would definitely try to get their child vaccinated, 14 percent definitely would not, and half said "it will depend."

But 57 percent of parents were still concerned about their child getting sick with swine flu.

The swine flu vaccines are new -- the Food and Drug Administration gave its OK in mid-September -- but they are made the same way as regular seasonal flu vaccine, which has minor side effects. Regulators say there have been no safety issues in studies of several thousand people.

The Centers for Disease Control says the vaccine's effectiveness varies, depending on the age and health of the person receiving it, and the similarity between the virus in the vaccine and the viruses striking people ill.

Of those parents who were unsure about the swine flu vaccine for their children or didn't plan to get it for them, 65 percent said they were concerned about the newness of the vaccine.

Those surveyed noted some other techniques, outside of vaccination, that were "very important" for keeping their kids healthy during flu season:

-- 92 percent cited frequent hand-washing

-- 89 percent mentioned healthful eating

-- 83 percent cited adequate sleep and rest

-- 68 percent noted avoidance of sick kids

Meanwhile, 41 percent said it was "very important" to have children vaccinated for flu.

Small rollouts of swine flu vaccinations begin this week.

Respondents were polled throughout Sept. 2-7, with 1,502 interviews completed via random digit dialing of cell phone and landlines. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

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