Taiwan President's Shooting Points to Anxiety Over Vote

News Analysis, Pueng Vongs, Pacific News Service

The assassination attempt on Taiwan's president and vice president just before the island goes to the polls points to tremendous anxiety over an election considered pivotal to Taiwan-China relations. A new flash poll of 600 Chinese Americans and Taiwanese Americans indicates that U.S. communities are just as anxious about the turmoil in the Taiwan Strait.

March 19, 2004 - Heightening tensions leading up to the critical March 20 Taiwan presidential elections erupted when incumbent Taiwan President Chen Shui-bian and Vice President Annette Lu were shot while campaigning a day before the elections. Though the wounds were not life-threatening, the incident points to the anxiety over an election considered a turning point in Taiwan's future. A new flash poll of Chinese Americans and Taiwanese Americans, conducted just days before the shooting by NCM (a division of Pacific News Service) showed those U.S. communities mirror the anxiety of those who will vote on the island this weekend.

"The campaign has been so divisive and emotionally charged that the shooting could have happened to either side," said L. Ling-chi Wang with the Ethnic Studies department at the University of California at Berkeley.

The incumbent Chen with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is widely regarded as a defiant proponent of the island's independence. He also proposed a controversial referendum to boost the island's defense against China, which has hundreds of missiles pointed at the island. Chen's major opponent, Lien Chan, from the Kuomintang (KMT) favors eventual unification with China.

In the past few weeks, hundreds of Chinese and Taiwanese from the Bay Area have been boarding planes to cross the Pacific to vote.

"This presidential election is the most important election in Taiwan history," says Rocky Liao of Pleasanton, one of the leaders of the Pan Green coalition in the Bay Area, which supports independence for Taiwan. He says about 800 to 1,000 members of his group returned to Taiwan to vote. "We insist that Taiwan and China are two separate countries and this election will maintain the country's independence stance."

Chi Tai of Fremont, who leads the Bay Area Pan Blue group, which supports Taiwan's unification with China, estimates 1,200 members from his group returned to vote. "More people than ever went back to vote this year," said Tai. "People feel Chen Shui-bian is pushing independence too hard. Everyone is worried about it disrupting the current balance between China and Taiwan."

Many unification advocates fear a victory by Chen could lead to a military confrontation with China. In a report in the Chinese-language World Journal, the China Democratic Party, a South Bay group, issued a statement that read, "to really love Taiwan, want peace, you can only choose Lien." Additionally, it stated, "Taiwan independence would certainly mean war."

According to the survey by NCM and Bendixen & Associates, a great majority of those polled (77 percent) said Taiwan belongs to China. The national, multilingual survey of 600 in Cantonese, Mandarin and English was heavily weighted toward those born on the Mainland China. Taiwanese make up only about 5 percent of the 2.7 million Chinese in the United States and represented less than 10 percent of those polled.

Among those born in Taiwan, some 41 percent said that Taiwan should be an independent state, versus 32 percent who felt that Taiwan belongs to China.

The poll also showed strong disfavor toward the Chen government. Among those born in Taiwan, 66 percent expressed disapproval of his performance and 53 percent supported Lien. Only 18 percent backed Chen. But the race is believed to be much closer in Taiwan.

When asked how they would vote on the referendum to boost Taiwan's defense system against China -- widely seen as an effort initiated by Chen to push forward a pro-independence agenda -- Taiwanese were divided: 36 percent supported increasing Taiwan's anti-missile defense against China, 35 percent were opposed and 29 percent were undecided. Overall, 45 percent of all respondents were against the referendum, and 13 percent in favor.

If Taiwan were to make moves toward independence, about half (53 percent) of all respondents said China has the right to take up arms against Taiwan, while 24 percent disagreed. Not surprisingly, Taiwanese were not keen on this idea: 64 percent opposed a military response from China and about as many wanted U.S. protection.

Despite growing ties with China, President Bush has vowed to defend Taiwan in the event of an attack by China. But some 62 percent of all respondents said the United States should not get involved if war were to break out in the Taiwan straits.

The most telling statistic in the poll: most respondents (54 percent of those born in Mainland China and 79 percent of those born in Taiwan) wanted to simply maintain the current status quo -- a Taiwan that's not really part of China nor fully independent -- perhaps for fear of what change may bring.

PNS contributor Pueng Vongs (pvongs@pacificnews.org) is an editor for New California Media.